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| Bashar Al Assad with the pro-regime forces |
The Syrian crisis that evolved out of the genuine grievances of opposition and massive use of force from Assad regime took an ugly shape when the global and regional players started supporting opposing parties in the civil war. The fragile Syrian government which was on the verge of collapse bounced back after getting air support from Putin's Russia and ground support from Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Al-Quds Force and the Lebanese Shi’ite militia Hezbollah. The economic and military support from these key power hubs not only bolstered the ranks of the Syrian regime but also turned the tide against the Free Syrian Army, a loose coalition of US-backed moderate rebels fighting to oust Syrian dictator.
The backing of rebels by the divided oil-rich Gulf and the ineffective US strategy in the wake of a passive leadership of Obama further exacerbated the already disastrous Syrian crisis. The insurgents who were armed and supported by both the Gulf and America were left reeling after some time under the advances of a more asserting Syrian Army. Obama administration backtracked from their earlier threat of a direct attack on Syrian President due to the massive military stacks of Russia in Assad’s Syria. Thus direct attack could have led to a direct tussle between Russia and America.
The entry of ISIS and other Islamist groups further complicated the dynamics of Syrian war where now no one knows who is fighting for whom and who is fighting against whom. Many political experts are of the view that the Assad knowingly allowed such groups to expand their presence into the Syrian territory to equate the Syrian revolution with an extremist uprising, the allegation which the Assad Government denies categorically. Assad started presenting himself as the bulwark against religious extremism and achieved some prominent successes in the conflict in the form of capturing Aleppo and Palmyra, the site of vast cultural heritage.
The American Election scenario in 2016 and the fading grip of President Obama on both internal and external policy matters created a vacuum in the Middle East which the incoming administration had to fill, but an unexpected win of Donald Trump seemed to jeopardize a possible peaceful resolution of the Syrian crisis. Trump election sloganeering on the foreign policy front and his laudatory statements for the Russian strongman signaled towards good relations with Russia under his presidency, but the scenario changed suddenly when American forces launched bravado of 59 Tomahawk missiles on the Syrian airbase, the first sharp gesture by the Trump administration.
How this overall situation affect the overall Syrian crisis is yet to be seen but the immediate escalation of tensions with Russia pointing towards a scenario which can prove to be disastrous for the Syrian people in both short and long term. The Russian government immediately criticized the American attack and closed down hotline between the two militaries, formed primarily to avoid any confrontation between the air forces of two countries.
Both the Russian president, Vladimir Putin and the American president, Donald termed the relations on the lowest level ever. The growing confrontation between the two largest players in the Syrian crisis can bring more instability to the country and can further worsen the conditions of ordinary people. The Syrian people expect a multi-pronged strategy from big powers to move towards a peaceful transition and especially from America, Russia, Iran, and Turkey to bring all the combating sides on the table to find a viable solution to the Syrian crisis.
About Muhammad Asim
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