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| American forces on the patrol during Afghan war |
The war in Afghanistan which started with the invasion of international coalition forces soon after the 9/11 bombing of New York’s World Trade Centre has taken an ugly shape in the present context. The recent killing of almost 200 security personnel at the hands of Taliban suicide bombers in an attack on the Afghan Army base points towards more deterioration of the already fragile security situation.
According to the statistics released by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, the Afghan security forces now only control less than about two-third of the land, and the rest is controlled by different splinter groups Of Taliban and ISIS-Khorasan.
American stakes and strategy regarding War in Afghanistan
The American air and ground superiority dislodged the Taliban Government in Afghanistan in a matter of few days, but those gains proved to be short-lived when Taliban fighters began to recalibrate their strategy in the wake of new realities. The internationally-backed government of Hamid Karzai brought some stability to the country for the time being at the expense of alienating and marginalizing the majority of Pashtuns. This alienation was exploited by the Taliban who were and still are a dominant force in the Pashtun-majority areas. The recent successful push by Taliban to take over major urban centers like Kunduz from the Afghan National Army is an indication of more instability and fighting in the war-torn country.
What is the strategy of Americans and what lies ahead?
The primary purpose of America in Afghanistan was to build a potent fighting force to counter the Taliban movement, but those efforts have failed very badly so far. The two main pillars of the Afghan National Unity Government, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, have now been at odd with each other for some time with each of them supported by the rival factions. The Taliban, on the contrary, are becoming bolder in their tactics by attacking secret bases of Afghan National Army and coalition troops. The war in Afghanistan has spread to the northern parts of the country, which were once considered to be relatively peaceful and a stronghold of anti-Taliban Northern Alliance.
The Donald Trump’s rise to the presidency of the United States of America and his launching of “Mother of all bombs” on the ISIS-controlled areas signals towards a much harder stance from him in which there will be more ground fighting, air strikes and drone attacks and eventually more miseries for the ordinary people. The war in Afghanistan is still raging on, and prospectus of any solution looks to be bleak in the near future.
Russian interests in Afghan war
The war in Afghanistan has always been a major source of worry for the Russian establishment due to their fears of spillover effects of the Afghan conflict on the Central Asian States and ultimately on the Muslim-majority Chechnya. The Russian strongman, Vladimir Putin, considers these areas as the backyard of Russia but the entry of ISIS into the Afghan conundrum and the allegiance of militants in the Caucasus region to the Daesh has further raised the stakes of Russia in the war.
The Russian initiative of holding a multilateral dialogue on the Afghan issue in Moscow can be called as the first step towards some sort of a viable solution but whether these efforts will be fruitful or not is very hard to predict. The reason is that such negotiations before this have not brought us even an inch closer to an end to the war in Afghanistan.
Chinese stakes and future strategy in the conflict
Afghanistan is very important in wake of its geographical importance for Chinese "one belt, one road (OBOR)" initiative through which China wants to showcase itself as an economic powerhouse both regionally and globally but deteriorated security situation will be a hindrance in fulfilling this ambition. China also has invested heavily in the mining industry of Afghanistan and thus wants to safeguards its investments in the war-torn country.
Last but not the least; Chinese also have serious concerns regarding the spillover effects of ISIS and other extremist brands into its Muslim-majority region. These concerns have prompted China to take the lead in initiating talks between the Afghan Government and the Taliban’s representatives but reliable results are yet to be seen.
How to put an end to the war in Afghanistan?
The war in Afghanistan cannot be brought to an end through a quick-fix solution. It needs political will and unity from three major global powers, regional stakeholders, and especially from the opposing Afghan parties to find some sort of win-win solution for all. The war in Afghanistan may be strategic game for other countries but it has been highly disastrous for the poor Afghan people who direly need international support to reconstruct their homes so that they can return to their areas and start their new lives free of militancy and fear.
About Muhammad Asim
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